Latest Updates

  • India Can Lead The Way On Global Trade

  • $ 21.9 billion - That's how much US tariffs on German cars could cost the German car industry

  • EU Japan Trade Deal: Free Trade is not doomed!

  • Davos Discussion - The Paradox of Protectionist Policies

  • World Economic Forum 2019

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

World Economic Outlook 2019
Growth in Times of Political Uncertainty


World economic outlook 2019: The global economy in 2018 was characterized by numerous political uncertainties: the future development of the trade disputes between the USA and China, the negotiations on the forthcoming Brexit, the Italian budgetary policy, the economic and political development in Turkey and much more. Unfortunately, these insecurities will not diminish in 2019. Global economic growth could therefore be weaker in 2019 than in 2018. More ...

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World Trade Organization: What Way Forward for Trade Dispute Settlement?
New ideas on how to treat the current crisis of the World trade organizations Appellate Body


The dispute settlement body of the WTO performs an important role in adjudicating trade disputes. In this new GED Focus Paper, international trade law expert Robert McDougall proposes some fresh ideas on how to treat the current crisis of the WTO Appellate Body as a chance to improve and update trade dispute resolution at the WTO. More ...

© Waqas - stock.adobe.com © Waqas - stock.adobe.com

The Best of GED - 2018
Catch up on the GED team's favourite blogposts from 2018


2018 has been another exiting year for the Global Economic Dynamics Project. With populism on the rise and growing protectionist tendencies being felt in many western nations, the GED team aimed to deliver to you the necessary facts and insights concerning all things trade and economics this year. Our studies, focus papers, blogposts and videos covered everything from large geopolitical events such as the election of Donald Trump - to less mainstream stories such as boosting intra-African trade. More ...

multilateral trading system nicknick_ko - stock.adobe.com

Lip-service Commitments Won't Halt Protectionism
The G20's role in reforming the WTO


The Group of Twenty (G20) made no promises to put down their trade weapons in their communiqué signed in Buenos Aires. They only took note of “current trade issues.” Leaders also acknowledged the obvious — that the multilateral trading system is not working well — but they quietly dropped their traditional (and largely unfulfilled) commitment […] More ...

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The Tide is Turning: How Emerging Markets are catching up as Global Investors
Should We Worry?


Developed economies have dominated global FDI flows in the past, with outsourcing of labor-intensive production from high-wage industrialized countries (like Germany) to low-wage developing countries (like China). No longer. Since the global financial crisis, this pattern has started to shift, with China emerging as a major global investor. The textile and electronic industry are classic […] More ...

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The Rage Against Globalization Shows Up In the Voting Booth
Populism in Germany: New paper shows how trade influenced voters in the past two elections


This GED Focus Paper looks at imports and voting results in Germany. By measuring Chinese import penetration and running a set of linear regression models, the paper finds that districts more heavily exposed to import penetration showed an increased propensity to support the anti-globalization oriented, right-wing populist AfD party during the 2013 and 2017 elections. More ...

Photo by Hanson Lu on Unsplash Photo by Hanson Lu on Unsplash

China's Economy Today: Effects on Germany
Part 4 of our mini-series on Global Value Chains


This week we focus on the role of China for German key industries. The rise of China’s economy in the last two decades has been breathtaking. Starting from scratch, the country has become the 2nd largest economy in the world in terms of gross domestic product and accounts for 11.5 percent of world trade. When it comes to exports, China has even been the uncontested world champion for nearly a decade. More ...

Photo by Hannes Egler on Unsplash Photo by Hannes Egler on Unsplash

How the German Economy is Connected to Eastern Europe
Part 3 of our mini-series on Global Value Chains


In our mini-series on Global Value Chains (GVCs) we look how three German key industries – motor vehicles, chemicals and machinery - are part of complex international production networks that illustrate the key role of comparative advantage . This week: the relevance of economic ties between Central and Eastern European Countries and Germany. More ...

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Shades of 2008 - Unprecedented Levels of China's Debt Threaten the Entire Global Economy
Scaling China's Great Wall of Debt Will Require More than Smoke and Mirrors


The figures of the Chinese debts are subject to ongoing discussion among economists. Will the enormous rise in Chinese corporate and private debt lead to another global financial crisis or will it be managed by the Chinese government? If China’s debt management fails, the macroeconomic effects are expected to overshadow the catastrophic effects of the 2008 financial and economic crises by large. More ...

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EU Japan Trade Deal: Free Trade is not doomed!
EU and Japan: Today one of the world’s biggest trade deals comes into force


From February 1st, 2019, the EU and Japan will start to build a large free trade area with about 640 million customers. Calculations by the ifo Institute on behalf of Bertelsmann Stiftung show that both sides will benefit from the EU Japan trade deal. Moreover, it is a strong signal that economic cooperation and integration are still possible in times of Trump and Brexit. More ...

My Life Graphic / Shutterstock Images My Life Graphic / Shutterstock Images

Globalization Report 2018: Who Benefits Most from Globalization?
For the 3rd time in a row – industrialized countries are biggest winners in globalization


The main question in the “Globalization Report 2018” is: What impact did the increase in globalization between 1990 and 2016 have on real – i.e. inflation-adjusted – GDP per capita in the 42 countries analyzed. This indicator was chosen because it is more meaningful for the prosperity of citizens than the GDP of the economy as a whole. More ...

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

World Economic Outlook 2019
Growth in Times of Political Uncertainty


World economic outlook 2019: The global economy in 2018 was characterized by numerous political uncertainties: the future development of the trade disputes between the USA and China, the negotiations on the forthcoming Brexit, the Italian budgetary policy, the economic and political development in Turkey and much more. Unfortunately, these insecurities will not diminish in 2019. Global economic growth could therefore be weaker in 2019 than in 2018. More ...

multilateral trading system nicknick_ko - stock.adobe.com

World Trade Organization: What Way Forward for Trade Dispute Settlement?
New ideas on how to treat the current crisis of the World trade organizations Appellate Body


The dispute settlement body of the WTO performs an important role in adjudicating trade disputes. In this new GED Focus Paper, international trade law expert Robert McDougall proposes some fresh ideas on how to treat the current crisis of the WTO Appellate Body as a chance to improve and update trade dispute resolution at the WTO. More ...

Car bodies on the production line inside automobile factory. Autokarossen in einer Autostraße einer Fabrik.
Bestellt am 18.01.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz für ST-MT ID-457 | GED Automobilindustrie" Prognos-Studie 103-64119-104 Car bodies on the production line inside automobile factory. Autokarossen in einer Autostraße einer Fabrik. Bestellt am 18.01.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz für ST-MT ID-457 | GED Automobilindustrie" Prognos-Studie 103-64119-104

$ 21.9 billion - That's how much US tariffs on German cars could cost the German car industry
Auto Executives around the world wait to see if imported car parts harm U.S. national security


With the United States on the verge of imposing US tariffs on German cars, we take a closer look at the German car industry’s exposure to the US market. To paint a more nuanced picture of the economic relationship, we apply a supply chain or added value approach. Our analysis shows that the German car industry could lose up to $ 21.9 billion in added value. More ...

© Waqas - stock.adobe.com © Waqas - stock.adobe.com

The Best of GED - 2018
Catch up on the GED team's favourite blogposts from 2018


2018 has been another exiting year for the Global Economic Dynamics Project. With populism on the rise and growing protectionist tendencies being felt in many western nations, the GED team aimed to deliver to you the necessary facts and insights concerning all things trade and economics this year. Our studies, focus papers, blogposts and videos covered everything from large geopolitical events such as the election of Donald Trump - to less mainstream stories such as boosting intra-African trade. More ...

My Life Graphic / Shutterstock Images My Life Graphic / Shutterstock Images

Globalization Report 2018: What about the BRICS countries?
Why are they not the main profiteers?


In terms of real gross domestic product (GDP) per capital, industrialized economies are the biggest winners of increasing globalization. Why are the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) , some of which are regarded as the engines of globalization, not the main profiteers? This is the question we are looking into in this blog post. More ...

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World Economic Forum 2019
Will it make a difference?


Every year, the high and mighty meet in the Swiss ski resort by invitation of the World Economic Forum for its Annual Meeting. This year, they discuss “Globalisation 4.0: Shaping a Global Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution”. A worthy topic, but will Davos give global governance more momentum? More ...

Photo by Arnaud Jaegers on Unsplash Photo by Arnaud Jaegers on Unsplash

Davos Discussion - The Paradox of Protectionist Policies
Pay, Power and Prestige


In recent years, many countries (not only in the U.S. under Donald Trump) have been imposing punitive tariffs and other trade barriers to protect their domestic economies. In fact, however, protectionist measures damage the national economy. Nevertheless, these decisions are often supported by a majority. This paradoxical phenomenon can be explained by Anthony Downs' political-economic considerations. More ...