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  • Yes. There Can Be Demographic Dividends with an Aging Population

  • The Future of Capitalism: Social Democracy in Crisis?

  • Can we have a Rational Discussion on Industrial Policy?

  • Who Really Wins from the Digital Economy?

  • Will the Digital Economy Change the Rules of the Game in the World Economy?

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India Can Lead the Way on Global Trade
India’s Trade Policies and finding a way toward global prosperity


At this point, India may be one of the few large economies able to provide leadership in international trade. The US under President Trump seems to have all but kissed goodbye to multilateralism. The EU at the moment seems too pre-occupied with issues like BREXIT etc. China while waxing eloquent about multilateralism, questions have arisen about its sincerity and earnestness. Besides, it is presently caught up in a trade war-like situation with the US. More ...

Car bodies on the production line inside automobile factory. Autokarossen in einer Autostraße einer Fabrik.
Bestellt am 18.01.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz für ST-MT ID-457 | GED Automobilindustrie" Prognos-Studie 103-64119-104 Car bodies on the production line inside automobile factory. Autokarossen in einer Autostraße einer Fabrik. Bestellt am 18.01.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz für ST-MT ID-457 | GED Automobilindustrie" Prognos-Studie 103-64119-104

$ 21.9 Billion - That's How Much US Tariffs on German Cars Could Cost the German Car Industry
Auto Executives around the world wait to see if imported car parts harm U.S. national security


With the United States on the verge of imposing US tariffs on German cars, we take a closer look at the German car industry’s exposure to the US market. To paint a more nuanced picture of the economic relationship, we apply a supply chain or added value approach. Our analysis shows that the German car industry could lose up to $ 21.9 billion in added value. More ...

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EU Japan Trade Deal: Free Trade Is Not Doomed!
EU and Japan: Today one of the world’s biggest trade deals comes into force


From February 1st, 2019, the EU and Japan will start to build a large free trade area with about 640 million customers. Calculations by the ifo Institute on behalf of Bertelsmann Stiftung show that both sides will benefit from the EU Japan trade deal. Moreover, it is a strong signal that economic cooperation and integration are still possible in times of Trump and Brexit. More ...

Photo by Arnaud Jaegers on Unsplash Photo by Arnaud Jaegers on Unsplash

Davos Discussion - The Paradox of Protectionist Policies
Pay, Power and Prestige


In recent years, many countries (not only in the U.S. under Donald Trump) have been imposing punitive tariffs and other trade barriers to protect their domestic economies. In fact, however, protectionist measures damage the national economy. Nevertheless, these decisions are often supported by a majority. This paradoxical phenomenon can be explained by Anthony Downs' political-economic considerations. More ...

GovernmentZA @ Flickr.com GovernmentZA @ Flickr.com

World Economic Forum 2019
Will it make a difference?


Every year, the high and mighty meet in the Swiss ski resort by invitation of the World Economic Forum for its Annual Meeting. This year, they discuss “Globalisation 4.0: Shaping a Global Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution”. A worthy topic, but will Davos give global governance more momentum? More ...

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

World Economic Outlook 2019
Growth in Times of Political Uncertainty


World economic outlook 2019: The global economy in 2018 was characterized by numerous political uncertainties: the future development of the trade disputes between the USA and China, the negotiations on the forthcoming Brexit, the Italian budgetary policy, the economic and political development in Turkey and much more. Unfortunately, these insecurities will not diminish in 2019. Global economic growth could therefore be weaker in 2019 than in 2018. More ...

multilateral trading system nicknick_ko - stock.adobe.com

World Trade Organization: What Way Forward for Trade Dispute Settlement?
New ideas on how to treat the current crisis of the World trade organizations Appellate Body


The dispute settlement body of the WTO performs an important role in adjudicating trade disputes. In this new GED Focus Paper, international trade law expert Robert McDougall proposes some fresh ideas on how to treat the current crisis of the WTO Appellate Body as a chance to improve and update trade dispute resolution at the WTO. More ...

© Waqas - stock.adobe.com © Waqas - stock.adobe.com

The Best of GED - 2018
Catch up on the GED team's favourite blogposts from 2018


2018 has been another exiting year for the Global Economic Dynamics Project. With populism on the rise and growing protectionist tendencies being felt in many western nations, the GED team aimed to deliver to you the necessary facts and insights concerning all things trade and economics this year. Our studies, focus papers, blogposts and videos covered everything from large geopolitical events such as the election of Donald Trump - to less mainstream stories such as boosting intra-African trade. More ...

multilateral trading system nicknick_ko - stock.adobe.com

Lip-service Commitments Won't Halt Protectionism
The G20's role in reforming the WTO


The Group of Twenty (G20) made no promises to put down their trade weapons in their communiqué signed in Buenos Aires. They only took note of “current trade issues.” Leaders also acknowledged the obvious — that the multilateral trading system is not working well — but they quietly dropped their traditional (and largely unfulfilled) commitment […] More ...

Engineer hand using tablet, heavy automation robot arm machine zapp2photo - stock.adobe.com

The Tide is Turning: How Emerging Markets are catching up as Global Investors
Should We Worry?


Developed economies have dominated global FDI flows in the past, with outsourcing of labor-intensive production from high-wage industrialized countries (like Germany) to low-wage developing countries (like China). No longer. Since the global financial crisis, this pattern has started to shift, with China emerging as a major global investor. The textile and electronic industry are classic […] More ...

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The Rage Against Globalization Shows Up In the Voting Booth
Populism in Germany: New paper shows how trade influenced voters in the past two elections


This GED Focus Paper looks at imports and voting results in Germany. By measuring Chinese import penetration and running a set of linear regression models, the paper finds that districts more heavily exposed to import penetration showed an increased propensity to support the anti-globalization oriented, right-wing populist AfD party during the 2013 and 2017 elections. More ...

Photo by Hanson Lu on Unsplash Photo by Hanson Lu on Unsplash

China's Economy Today: Effects on Germany
Part 4 of our mini-series on Global Value Chains


This week we focus on the role of China for German key industries. The rise of China’s economy in the last two decades has been breathtaking. Starting from scratch, the country has become the 2nd largest economy in the world in terms of gross domestic product and accounts for 11.5 percent of world trade. When it comes to exports, China has even been the uncontested world champion for nearly a decade. More ...

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Globalization Report 2018: Who Benefits Most from Globalization?
For the 3rd time in a row – industrialized countries are biggest winners in globalization


The main question in the “Globalization Report 2018” is: What impact did the increase in globalization between 1990 and 2016 have on real – i.e. inflation-adjusted – GDP per capita in the 42 countries analyzed. This indicator was chosen because it is more meaningful for the prosperity of citizens than the GDP of the economy as a whole. More ...

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

Will the Digital Economy Change the Rules of the Game in the World Economy?
Monopolies and Superstar Firms


A central prerequisite for a functioning market economy is that there are many companies and many consumers. In this case, nobody has market power, which can be used to the detriment of others. The digital economy could change the situation. Special features in the cost structure and characteristics of digital goods can cause monopolies. The resulting superstar firms are able to increase their profits at the expense of consumers and employees. More ...

multilateral trading system nicknick_ko - stock.adobe.com

What Needs to Change at The WTO?
Our Panel of Experts presents our Recommendations at Public Forum 2018


The World Trade Organization (WTO) serves as a place where trade policy issues are addressed, disputes arbitrated, legal frameworks derived and enforced. The Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Expert Board on the Future of Trade Governance has released a report that elaborates a series of feasible policy recommendations that will increase the effectiveness and salience of the WTO. More ...

Photo by Alex Ronsdorf on Unsplash Photo by Alex Ronsdorf on Unsplash

Can we have a Rational Discussion on Industrial Policy?
China’s state capitalism puts long maligned industrial policy back on the table


“Industrial policy” is back in the headlines. Whether in the European Union, Germany, or the United States, there is an ongoing debate in the media, among politicians and economists about the future of the industrial sector. While some observers fear that governments implementing industrial policy (or interfering in the markets, as detractors might say) will cause a roll-back right into a GDR- or Soviet-style planned economy, others regard it as a panacea to counteract China’s state capitalism. Yet, why do industrial policy discussions cause such a stir? More ...

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Globalization Report 2018: What about the BRICS countries?
Why are they not the main profiteers?


In terms of real gross domestic product (GDP) per capital, industrialized economies are the biggest winners of increasing globalization. Why are the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) , some of which are regarded as the engines of globalization, not the main profiteers? This is the question we are looking into in this blog post. More ...

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

World Economic Outlook 2019
Growth in Times of Political Uncertainty


World economic outlook 2019: The global economy in 2018 was characterized by numerous political uncertainties: the future development of the trade disputes between the USA and China, the negotiations on the forthcoming Brexit, the Italian budgetary policy, the economic and political development in Turkey and much more. Unfortunately, these insecurities will not diminish in 2019. Global economic growth could therefore be weaker in 2019 than in 2018. More ...

Car bodies on the production line inside automobile factory. Autokarossen in einer Autostraße einer Fabrik.
Bestellt am 18.01.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz für ST-MT ID-457 | GED Automobilindustrie" Prognos-Studie 103-64119-104 Car bodies on the production line inside automobile factory. Autokarossen in einer Autostraße einer Fabrik. Bestellt am 18.01.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz für ST-MT ID-457 | GED Automobilindustrie" Prognos-Studie 103-64119-104

$ 21.9 Billion - That's How Much US Tariffs on German Cars Could Cost the German Car Industry
Auto Executives around the world wait to see if imported car parts harm U.S. national security


With the United States on the verge of imposing US tariffs on German cars, we take a closer look at the German car industry’s exposure to the US market. To paint a more nuanced picture of the economic relationship, we apply a supply chain or added value approach. Our analysis shows that the German car industry could lose up to $ 21.9 billion in added value. More ...

Photo by Helena Lopes on Unsplash Photo by Helena Lopes on Unsplash

The Future of Capitalism: Social Democracy in Crisis?
A book abstract of “The Future of Capitalism” by Paul Collier


With his latest book, the British economist Paul Collier attempts to unmask the existential crisis of modern capitalism. According to the author, social democracy has failed to deliver on its promise to create a cooperative and morally reciprocal society. “The Future of Capitalism” is Collier’s appeal to reset the mindset of modern social democracy, to […] More ...

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The Crossroads: Argentina


The Crossroads is a new video series from the GED team that focuses on decisive moments for different economies. In our first episode we take a look at Argentina, a country facing turbulent economic conditions and an ongoing debt crisis just as it prepares for crucial presidential elections in October 2015. More ...