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  • 10 Years after Lehman - Is an Economic Crisis on the Horizon? (Part 2)

  • 10 Years After Lehman - Does another economic crisis loom? (Part 1)

  • Curse or Blessing? The U.S. Dollar as the Global Currency

  • How Germany’s Declining Innovativeness Contributes to Inequality

  • North Americans Remain United on Trade but Divided on NAFTA

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The Global Economic Balance of Power is Shifting
Will the emerging and developing countries replace the advanced economies?


In recent years, GDP has grown at much higher rates in emerging markets such as China and India than in Western industrialised countries. In the advanced economies, fears of being replaced are increasing. This may be true in the long term, but in the near future, industrialised nations of the West will remain those with the greatest economic power. More ...

G Azevêdo with Professor Bernard Hoekman (left) and Andreas Esche (right). G Azevêdo with Professor Bernard Hoekman (left) and Andreas Esche (right).

DG Azevêdo Receives Experts’ Report on Future of Global Trade Governance
Four complementary avenues that can be pursued to revitalize the WTO as a forum for trade cooperation and conflict resolution


WTO Director-General Roberto Azevêdo met on 17 July with representatives of the Bertelsmann Stiftung’s High-Level Board of Experts to receive their report on the Future of Global Trade Governance. The report outlines four complementary avenues that can be pursued to revitalize the WTO as a forum for trade cooperation and conflict resolution. More ...

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Revitalizing Multilateral Governance at the World Trade Organization
Report of the High-Level Board of Experts on the Future of Global Trade Governance


The World Trade Organization (WTO) serves as a place where trade policy issues are addressed, disputes arbitrated, legal frameworks derived and enforced. The Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Expert Board on the Future of Trade Governance has released a report that elaborates a series of feasible policy recommendations that will increase the effectiveness and salience of the WTO. More ...

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Can Better Institutional Learning Improve Working Practices at the WTO?
How a Systematic Reflection by Members on Transparency Could Promote Institutional Learning


This paper suggests a systematic discussion of transparency by encouraging institutional learning which could help Members to recover a shared sense of collective purpose. It further discusses the meaning of institutional learning, and whether other international organizations have lessons for the WTO on how to do it. More ...

Photo by Goh Rhy Yan on Unsplash Photo by Goh Rhy Yan on Unsplash

7 Risks for the Global Economy
Why we should not rely on sustained economic growth


After the global economy experienced a small dip in growth in 2016, the world's real gross domestic product (GDP) has been growing slightly more strongly since 2017. At present, most projections assume that the global economy could continue to grow by around four percent in the coming years. However, there are also numerous risks that endanger this growth process. More ...

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The Anatomy of the U.S. Balance of Trade
Why are Trade Sanctions mainly directed against China and the EU?


  Already during the election campaign Donald Trump had announced protectionist measures to reduce the high trade deficit of the U.S. Since March 2018 at the latest, this announcement has taken on ever more concrete form. The trade sanctions were initially mainly directed against China. But the European Union (EU) will not be spared either. […] More ...

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Globalization Report 2018: What about the NAFTA Countries?
Interconnectedness of the three countries beyond the FIFA World Cup 2026


The FIFA World Cup 2026 will take place in the three member states of the North-American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) – Mexico, Canada and the United States. This was officially announced today (June 13th, 2018). This huge event will certainly enhance the international interconnectedness of the three countries not only in the fields of sports, but also in many other areas. We take this as an occasion to look at the level of globalization the three NAFTA members have reached already and how much they have benefitted so far from increasing international interconnectedness. We base this analysis on our “Globalization Report 2018“ which we published last week (June 8th, 2018). More ...

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Globalization Report 2018: What about the BRICS countries?
Why are they not the main profiteers?


In terms of real gross domestic product (GDP) per capital, industrialized economies are the biggest winners of increasing globalization. Why are the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) , some of which are regarded as the engines of globalization, not the main profiteers? This is the question we are looking into in this blog post. More ...

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Globalization Report 2018: Who Benefits Most from Globalization?
For the 3rd time in a row – industrialized countries are biggest winners in globalization


The main question in the “Globalization Report 2018” is: What impact did the increase in globalization between 1990 and 2016 have on real – i.e. inflation-adjusted – GDP per capita in the 42 countries analyzed. This indicator was chosen because it is more meaningful for the prosperity of citizens than the GDP of the economy as a whole. More ...

Photo by Vladislav Klapin on Unsplash Photo by Vladislav Klapin on Unsplash

Economic Globalization: Time to Make It More Inclusive
Compensating economic losers is a key challenge for future global economic development.


As in the previous reports, we can show that globalization and international trade have positive impacts on economic growth in the participating economies. At the same time, this does not imply that every single person or region benefits. Compensating the economic losers from globalization and international trade is a key challenge for the future global economic development. More ...

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Is China Systematically Buying Up German Key Technologies?
An Analysis of Chinese Acquisitions in Germany in the Context of “Made in China 2025”


Foreign direct investment (FDI) can have positive effects, such as job creation, on the host country’s economy. However, the surge in Chinese M&A transactions in Germany has recently aroused suspicion. What is behind the increased interest in "Made in Germany"? And in which sectors do investors from China invest most frequently? More ...

Donald Trump Donald Trump, Gage Skidmore @Flickr.com

GED Explains: Import Tariffs vs. Import Quotas
Why Import Quotas have the Same Effects as Tariffs on Imports


The US government has postponed the introduction of punitive tariffs on European products such as steel and aluminium for the time being. But instead, they are now considering restricting the volume of exports from Europe through an import quota. In general, such import quotas have the same effects as tariffs on imports, leading to higher […] More ...

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10 Years After Lehman - Does another economic crisis loom? (Part 1)
What are the central causes of an economic crisis?


  In September 2008, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers triggered the worst economic slump since the global economic crisis in the 1930s. Both crises were triggered by the bursting of a speculative bubble and the associated stock market crash. Unfortunately, the basic conditions for such a crash are once again in place.  Learn in this […] More ...

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10 Years after Lehman - Is an Economic Crisis on the Horizon? (Part 2)
Economic Crisis: Where are we today?


  In the last blog I showed what the basic pattern of serious economic crises looks like. In the past, such economic slumps were often triggered by a burst of speculative bubbles. In this post you get insights on the prerequisites of speculative bubbles.   An important prerequisite for a speculative bubble – high liquidity – […] More ...

cuba title pic

The Crossroads: Cuba


As the US and Cuba reopen their embassies in each other's countries Cuba finds itself at a crossroads. Which path into the future will it follow? This is the second installment of the GED team's new video series "The Crossroads". More ...

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Globalization Report 2018: Who Benefits Most from Globalization?
For the 3rd time in a row – industrialized countries are biggest winners in globalization


The main question in the “Globalization Report 2018” is: What impact did the increase in globalization between 1990 and 2016 have on real – i.e. inflation-adjusted – GDP per capita in the 42 countries analyzed. This indicator was chosen because it is more meaningful for the prosperity of citizens than the GDP of the economy as a whole. More ...

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The Crossroads: Argentina


The Crossroads is a new video series from the GED team that focuses on decisive moments for different economies. In our first episode we take a look at Argentina, a country facing turbulent economic conditions and an ongoing debt crisis just as it prepares for crucial presidential elections in October 2015. More ...

WTO headquarters in Geneva by Nicolas Nova @ flickr.com WTO headquarters in Geneva by Nicolas Nova @ flickr.com

GED Mini-Series: Inclusiveness in the Global Trading System - How Did We Get Here?
PART ONE: How did we get here? - The history of preferential trade agreements


In our new GED-Project mini-series we examine the issue of inclusiveness in the global trading system. Part one of our four-part series will look at the history of preferential trade agreements and aim to give some insight into how we got to the current situation. More ...

multilateral trading system nicknick_ko - stock.adobe.com

Revitalizing Multilateral Governance at the World Trade Organization
Report of the High-Level Board of Experts on the Future of Global Trade Governance


The World Trade Organization (WTO) serves as a place where trade policy issues are addressed, disputes arbitrated, legal frameworks derived and enforced. The Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Expert Board on the Future of Trade Governance has released a report that elaborates a series of feasible policy recommendations that will increase the effectiveness and salience of the WTO. More ...