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Expected Euro Appreciation
Curse or blessing for the euro zone?


Since the beginning of 2018, the euro has depreciated against the dollar. At the beginning of June, the price for one euro rose again. Even if the euro lost value again in the last few days, a further appreciation of the euro is expected for the next 12 months (see, for example Michels 2019, page […] More ...

Photo by M. B. M. on Unsplash Photo by M. B. M. on Unsplash

Who Is Afraid of the Global Market Price?
Have we reached the pinnacle of globalization?


The worldwide opening of markets is coming under increasing pressure in the developed industrial countries. One explanation is that industrialized countries have already realized all possible economic advantages. for people in their role as owners of factors of production, as a result of the world market openings achieved to date. Further intensification of globalization would […] More ...

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Election Results India: Implications of Election Results
The future course of India’s International Economic Policy


The results of the 17th General Elections of India for choosing legislators were declared on May 23rd, 2019. The biggest elections in the largest democracy of the world, featuring 900 million eligible voters, spread over more than a month, were held over 7 phases. The 1st phase of the elections commenced on April 11th while the […] More ...

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What Do the Results of the EU Elections Mean for the Future of the EU Trade Policy?
The collapse of the centre will mean re-alignment and building consensus


Last week, the citizens across the European Union voted for a new European Parliament. The European Parliament also has an important voice in trade policy, so in this blog post GED asks the changes in the composition of the EU parliament mean for the EU trade policy. EU Elections 2019: What changed in the new […] More ...

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Caught in the Crossfire of the US-China Trade War
Implications for the US, China and the EU


Once again, a tweet by US President Donald Trump has put the world in shock: Shortly before the next negotiations with China, Trump pushed ahead with further punitive measures and increased customs duties on Chinese imports worth USD 200 billion from 10 to 25 percent. China retaliated in kind. What does this mean for China and specially the EU, which has been caught in the crossfire of Trump's criticism, too? More ...

Screenshot 2019-05-07 at 13.21.30

The Future of Capitalism: Social Democracy in Crisis? (Part 2)
A conversation with Paul Collier


During our visit to the Global Solutions Summit 2019, we had the chance to talk to Paul Collier, professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Oxford and author of “The Future of Capitalism”. As we highlighted in our last post, with his newest book, the author questions modern social democracy and appeals for a future where capitalism is not only prosperous but also more ethical. More ...

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India’s Stance on WTO Reform


WTO reforms: President Trump recently referred to India as ‘the tariff King’ that imposes ‘tremendously high’ tariffs on American products like Harley ... More ...

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Yes. There Can Be Demographic Dividends with an Aging Population
Can Foreign Direct Investments (FDI’s) help increase prosperity and foster global sustainable development?


Could these different demographic and economic development stages be mutually beneficial? In this blog post we discuss whether foreign direct investments (FDIs) could help generate long-term economic growth and material prosperity producing demographic dividends for both sides. More ...

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What Needs to Change at The WTO?
Our Panel of Experts presents our Recommendations at Public Forum 2018


The World Trade Organization (WTO) serves as a place where trade policy issues are addressed, disputes arbitrated, legal frameworks derived and enforced. The Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Expert Board on the Future of Trade Governance has released a report that elaborates a series of feasible policy recommendations that will increase the effectiveness and salience of the WTO. More ...

Car bodies on the production line inside automobile factory. Autokarossen in einer Autostraße einer Fabrik.
Bestellt am 18.01.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz für ST-MT ID-457 | GED Automobilindustrie" Prognos-Studie 103-64119-104 Car bodies on the production line inside automobile factory. Autokarossen in einer Autostraße einer Fabrik. Bestellt am 18.01.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz für ST-MT ID-457 | GED Automobilindustrie" Prognos-Studie 103-64119-104

$ 21.9 Billion - That's How Much US Tariffs on German Cars Could Cost the German Car Industry
Auto Executives around the world wait to see if imported car parts harm U.S. national security


With the United States on the verge of imposing US tariffs on German cars, we take a closer look at the German car industry’s exposure to the US market. To paint a more nuanced picture of the economic relationship, we apply a supply chain or added value approach. Our analysis shows that the German car industry could lose up to $ 21.9 billion in added value. More ...

multilateral trading system nicknick_ko - stock.adobe.com

Revitalizing Multilateral Governance at the World Trade Organization
Report of the High-Level Board of Experts on the Future of Global Trade Governance


The World Trade Organization (WTO) serves as a place where trade policy issues are addressed, disputes arbitrated, legal frameworks derived and enforced. The Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Expert Board on the Future of Trade Governance has released a report that elaborates a series of feasible policy recommendations that will increase the effectiveness and salience of the WTO. More ...

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Can We Have a Rational Discussion on Industrial Policy?
China’s state capitalism puts long maligned industrial policy back on the table


“Industrial policy” is back in the headlines. Whether in the European Union, Germany, or the United States, there is an ongoing debate in the media, among politicians and economists about the future of the industrial sector. While some observers fear that governments implementing industrial policy (or interfering in the markets, as detractors might say) will cause a roll-back right into a GDR- or Soviet-style planned economy, others regard it as a panacea to counteract China’s state capitalism. Yet, why do industrial policy discussions cause such a stir? More ...

multilateral trading system nicknick_ko - stock.adobe.com

World Trade Organization: What Way Forward for Trade Dispute Settlement?
New ideas on how to treat the current crisis of the World trade organizations Appellate Body


The dispute settlement body of the WTO performs an important role in adjudicating trade disputes. In this new GED Focus Paper, international trade law expert Robert McDougall proposes some fresh ideas on how to treat the current crisis of the WTO Appellate Body as a chance to improve and update trade dispute resolution at the WTO. More ...

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The Future of Capitalism: Social Democracy in Crisis?
A book abstract of “The Future of Capitalism” by Paul Collier


With his latest book, the British economist Paul Collier attempts to unmask the existential crisis of modern capitalism. According to the author, social democracy has failed to deliver on its promise to create a cooperative and morally reciprocal society. “The Future of Capitalism” is Collier’s appeal to reset the mindset of modern social democracy, to […] More ...

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EU Japan Trade Deal: Free Trade Is Not Doomed!
EU and Japan: Today one of the world’s biggest trade deals comes into force


From February 1st, 2019, the EU and Japan will start to build a large free trade area with about 640 million customers. Calculations by the ifo Institute on behalf of Bertelsmann Stiftung show that both sides will benefit from the EU Japan trade deal. Moreover, it is a strong signal that economic cooperation and integration are still possible in times of Trump and Brexit. More ...

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Will the Digital Economy Change the Rules of the Game in the World Economy?
Monopolies and Superstar Firms


A central prerequisite for a functioning market economy is that there are many companies and many consumers. In this case, nobody has market power, which can be used to the detriment of others. The digital economy could change the situation. Special features in the cost structure and characteristics of digital goods can cause monopolies. The resulting superstar firms are able to increase their profits at the expense of consumers and employees. More ...