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  • The Best of GED - 2018

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Lip-service Commitments Won't Halt Protectionism
The G20's role in reforming the WTO


The Group of Twenty (G20) made no promises to put down their trade weapons in their communiqué signed in Buenos Aires. They only took note of “current trade issues.” Leaders also acknowledged the obvious — that the multilateral trading system is not working well — but they quietly dropped their traditional (and largely unfulfilled) commitment […] More ...

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The Tide is Turning: How Emerging Markets are catching up as Global Investors
Should We Worry?


Developed economies have dominated global FDI flows in the past, with outsourcing of labor-intensive production from high-wage industrialized countries (like Germany) to low-wage developing countries (like China). No longer. Since the global financial crisis, this pattern has started to shift, with China emerging as a major global investor. The textile and electronic industry are classic […] More ...

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The Rage Against Globalization Shows Up In the Voting Booth
Populism in Germany: New paper shows how trade influenced voters in the past two elections


This GED Focus Paper looks at imports and voting results in Germany. By measuring Chinese import penetration and running a set of linear regression models, the paper finds that districts more heavily exposed to import penetration showed an increased propensity to support the anti-globalization oriented, right-wing populist AfD party during the 2013 and 2017 elections. More ...

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China's Economy Today: Effects on Germany
Part 4 of our mini-series on Global Value Chains


This week we focus on the role of China for German key industries. The rise of China’s economy in the last two decades has been breathtaking. Starting from scratch, the country has become the 2nd largest economy in the world in terms of gross domestic product and accounts for 11.5 percent of world trade. When it comes to exports, China has even been the uncontested world champion for nearly a decade. More ...

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How the German Economy is Connected to Eastern Europe
Part 3 of our mini-series on Global Value Chains


In our mini-series on Global Value Chains (GVCs) we look how three German key industries – motor vehicles, chemicals and machinery - are part of complex international production networks that illustrate the key role of comparative advantage . This week: the relevance of economic ties between Central and Eastern European Countries and Germany. More ...

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Shades of 2008 - Unprecedented Levels of China's Debt Threaten the Entire Global Economy
Scaling China's Great Wall of Debt Will Require More than Smoke and Mirrors


The figures of the Chinese debts are subject to ongoing discussion among economists. Will the enormous rise in Chinese corporate and private debt lead to another global financial crisis or will it be managed by the Chinese government? If China’s debt management fails, the macroeconomic effects are expected to overshadow the catastrophic effects of the 2008 financial and economic crises by large. More ...

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Time for New Allies? The EU Should Push EU Asia Economic Relations
Thoughts on the eve of the ASEM: Global Partners for Global Challenges, Summit


The Economic Ministers of the 53 member states of the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) are convening in Seoul from September 21 to 22, 2017. Given the rising protectionism worldwide and especially U.S. president Donald Trump’s nationalistic economic policy, we argue that this meeting is an opportunity to signal good economic cooperation beetween Asia and Europe. More ...

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Economic Development in Africa
Is demographic change an opportunity for Africa's economies?


  Africa is one of the poorest regions in the world. But with the fastest growing population in the world, and the availability of natural resources African nations can capitalize on this opportunity for growth. Learn in this post how Africa’s economies can profit from demographic change. According to United Nations projections, Africa’s population will […] More ...

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What Needs to Change at The WTO?
Our Panel of Experts presents our Recommendations at Public Forum 2018


The World Trade Organization (WTO) serves as a place where trade policy issues are addressed, disputes arbitrated, legal frameworks derived and enforced. The Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Expert Board on the Future of Trade Governance has released a report that elaborates a series of feasible policy recommendations that will increase the effectiveness and salience of the WTO. More ...

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10 Years after the Financial Crisis - Quo vadis, Italy?
5 charts showing Italy's economic development since the Lehman bankruptcy


The Lehman bankruptcy plunged the global economy into a severe recession. While Germany quickly recovered from the financial crisis, Southern European countries suffered a further decline in their economic output in 2012 and 2013. After Greece, Italy suffers the most from the aftermath of these two economic slumps. The Italian economy today faces numerous economic […] More ...

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The Best of GED - 2018
Catch up on the GED team's favourite blogposts from 2018


2018 has been another exiting year for the Global Economic Dynamics Project. With populism on the rise and growing protectionist tendencies being felt in many western nations, the GED team aimed to deliver to you the necessary facts and insights concerning all things trade and economics this year. Our studies, focus papers, blogposts and videos covered everything from large geopolitical events such as the election of Donald Trump - to less mainstream stories such as boosting intra-African trade. More ...

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Globalization Report 2018: Who Benefits Most from Globalization?
For the 3rd time in a row – industrialized countries are biggest winners in globalization


The main question in the “Globalization Report 2018” is: What impact did the increase in globalization between 1990 and 2016 have on real – i.e. inflation-adjusted – GDP per capita in the 42 countries analyzed. This indicator was chosen because it is more meaningful for the prosperity of citizens than the GDP of the economy as a whole. More ...

Photo by Hanson Lu on Unsplash Photo by Hanson Lu on Unsplash

China's Economy Today: Effects on Germany
Part 4 of our mini-series on Global Value Chains


This week we focus on the role of China for German key industries. The rise of China’s economy in the last two decades has been breathtaking. Starting from scratch, the country has become the 2nd largest economy in the world in terms of gross domestic product and accounts for 11.5 percent of world trade. When it comes to exports, China has even been the uncontested world champion for nearly a decade. More ...

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World Trade Organization: What Way Forward for Trade Dispute Settlement?
New ideas on how to treat the current crisis of the World trade organizations Appellate Body


The dispute settlement body of the WTO performs an important role in adjudicating trade disputes. In this new GED Focus Paper, international trade law expert Robert McDougall proposes some fresh ideas on how to treat the current crisis of the WTO Appellate Body as a chance to improve and update trade dispute resolution at the WTO. More ...

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World Economic Outlook 2019
Growth in Times of Political Uncertainty


World economic outlook 2019: The global economy in 2018 was characterized by numerous political uncertainties: the future development of the trade disputes between the USA and China, the negotiations on the forthcoming Brexit, the Italian budgetary policy, the economic and political development in Turkey and much more. Unfortunately, these insecurities will not diminish in 2019. Global economic growth could therefore be weaker in 2019 than in 2018. More ...

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Globalization Report 2018: What about the BRICS countries?
Why are they not the main profiteers?


In terms of real gross domestic product (GDP) per capital, industrialized economies are the biggest winners of increasing globalization. Why are the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) , some of which are regarded as the engines of globalization, not the main profiteers? This is the question we are looking into in this blog post. More ...

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Consequences of Punitive Tariffs
What Does History Tell Us?


The historical examples show: politicians and bureaucrats initially find trade barriers to be a suitable means of protecting the domestic economy or certain sectors from foreign competition. However, the economy as a whole suffers over the long term. This also applies to the protected sectors: The necessary adjustments are not made there so international competitiveness continually declines. Compounding the problem, countermeasures adopted by the affected trading partners, cause additional damage to the domestic economy. More ...

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Lip-service Commitments Won't Halt Protectionism
The G20's role in reforming the WTO


The Group of Twenty (G20) made no promises to put down their trade weapons in their communiqué signed in Buenos Aires. They only took note of “current trade issues.” Leaders also acknowledged the obvious — that the multilateral trading system is not working well — but they quietly dropped their traditional (and largely unfulfilled) commitment […] More ...