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  • World Economic Outlook 2020 - Is a Slight Upswing Possible?

2020

11 Major Events that Could Change the Global Economy in 2020
The new decade starts with a lot of meaningful events. As we did for 2019, we chose 11 of them to which you should definitely pay attention to!


31st of January: Brexit In December 2019, the Conservatives’ with their idiosyncratic candidate Boris Johnson attained an absolute majority in the general elections. This is their best result since 1987 when Margaret Thatcher was elected as Prime Minister. This strongly boosts the chances of a Brexit at the end of January as Prime Minister Boris […] More ...

WTO WTO

What Has the WTO Ever Done for Us?
Welfare Effects of the WTO


On January 1st, the WTO will celebrate its 25th birthday. Whether it is looking forward to a rosy future is however uncertain. Their largest members, the US and China escalate their tariff disputes outside the organization. At the same time, the US’s blocking of the Appellate Body risks damaging the whole institution. More ...

manufacturing @Anamul Rezwan from pexels.com

Productivity Growth and the Internationality of Innovative Milieus
Can internationalization be one puzzle piece in somehow boosting low productivity rates?


The total factor productivity growth is generally low in Germany. However, the manufacturing sector shows comparatively high productivity growth rates. Within the manufacturing sector, more innovative milieus are more international. Lessons can be learned. Technological progress is a major component of substantial economic growth, apart from increases in labor participation and capital endowment. As a […] More ...

Travel concept with flag pushpins and world map.
Bunte Nadeln sind auf einer Weltkarte gepinnt.
Bestellt am 14.06.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz füt ST-MT ID-610 | "Roadmap 2030" 103-64119-104 Travel concept with flag pushpins and world map. Bunte Nadeln sind auf einer Weltkarte gepinnt. Bestellt am 14.06.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz füt ST-MT ID-610 | "Roadmap 2030" 103-64119-104

Germany and Globalization: Prospects of Global Integration in Times of Increasing Insecurities


Like all other developed economies, Germany benefits strongly from a comprehensive integration into the global economy. This core thesis was reviewed in detail by the “Global Economic Dynamics” project in the last years, and comprehensive evidence was found to confirm it. More ...

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GED Welcomes Markus Overdiek!


Markus joined the Global Economic Dynamics (GED) team in November 2019. He studied Public Policy at the University of Münster, with a major focus on economics and a minor focus on law and politics. During his master, he has been for one semester at the Aix-Marseille School of Economics and for a summer school at the University of Twente. More ...

Travel concept with flag pushpins and world map.
Bunte Nadeln sind auf einer Weltkarte gepinnt.
Bestellt am 14.06.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz füt ST-MT ID-610 | "Roadmap 2030" 103-64119-104 Travel concept with flag pushpins and world map. Bunte Nadeln sind auf einer Weltkarte gepinnt. Bestellt am 14.06.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz füt ST-MT ID-610 | "Roadmap 2030" 103-64119-104

Roadmap 2030: 3 Ways to Ensure the German Economy’s Competitiveness in the Coming Decade


German Economy: The catching-up of emerging markets (especially China); demographic change; and digitization are the three central challenges that could have a significant impact on Germany‘s competitiveness in the future. Germany must be better prepared for this. Germany can focus on three fields of action to achieve this: More ...

container ship trade by Tom Fisk from pexels.com

An Aging Population - The Impact on Foreign Trade in Industrialized Countries
What do empiricism and simulation calculations tell us?


An aging population: In the last week, we have shown what theoretical connections can be expected between an ageing society and the current account balance of this country. The question now is which demographically induced effects important industrial nations such as Germany, Japan and the USA can expect in their current account balances by 2050. […] More ...

My Life Graphic / Shutterstock Images My Life Graphic / Shutterstock Images

GED Welcomes Ashenafi Teshome Guta!


Ashenafi joined the Global Economic Dynamics (GED) team at Bertelsmann-Stiftung as an intern in October 2019 and will be working in collaboration with other team members and also individually to contribute to the GED project. Ashenafi will serve a key role in our analysis of the role of the African free trade agreement and Ethiopian […] More ...

trade-water-boat- @Julius Silver pexels.com

Demographics and Foreign Trade: What Are the Effects of an Aging Population on the Current Account Balance of an Economy?


The change in the age structure of a society has an impact on key macroeconomic variables, including the savings and investment ratios, the inflation rate and overall economic productivity. Our forthcoming paper outlines some central relationships between the ageing of population in developed industrial economies and their current account balances. More ...

Travel concept with flag pushpins and world map.
Bunte Nadeln sind auf einer Weltkarte gepinnt.
Bestellt am 14.06.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz füt ST-MT ID-610 | "Roadmap 2030" 103-64119-104 Travel concept with flag pushpins and world map. Bunte Nadeln sind auf einer Weltkarte gepinnt. Bestellt am 14.06.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz füt ST-MT ID-610 | "Roadmap 2030" 103-64119-104

Roadmap 2030: Spreading Globalization Gains More Widely


In this instalment of the Roadmap 2030 blogpost, we look into the discontents with globalization and how they can be addressed. As we see from surveys, people tend to be concerned about job security and wage developments in the context of globalization. They feel insufficiently protected against negative side effects of globalisation. More ...

WTO copyright @WTO

How to Organise a WTO Ministerial Conference


In June 2020, the Kazakh government is going to host the 12th WTO Ministerial Conference. This week, GED is meeting their negotiators for a workshop identifying best practices in hosting multilateral conferences. This event is organised together with the Centre for Multilateral Negotiations. More ...

multilateral trading system nicknick_ko - stock.adobe.com

WTO Dispute Settlement and the Appellate Body Crisis - What Insiders Think


On December 10, the Appellate Body of the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Mechanism will lose its functionality. After that, trade disputes between WTO Members cannot be finally and bindingly resolved – which is worrying news in a world of trade wars. Our newest publication asks the users of the dispute settlement system how they view the work of the dispute settlement mechanism of the WTO and where they have concerns. More ...

Travel concept with flag pushpins and world map.
Bunte Nadeln sind auf einer Weltkarte gepinnt.
Bestellt am 14.06.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz füt ST-MT ID-610 | "Roadmap 2030" 103-64119-104 Travel concept with flag pushpins and world map. Bunte Nadeln sind auf einer Weltkarte gepinnt. Bestellt am 14.06.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz füt ST-MT ID-610 | "Roadmap 2030" 103-64119-104

Roadmap 2030: Basic conditions for welfare-enhancing international trade


A fundamental conviction of economics is that international trade increases the material prosperity of people. There are numerous reasons for this. At the same time, however, it should be pointed out that a number of conditions must be met, since the international division of labor and the trade associated with it actually improve people's living conditions. More ...

400 posts overall

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multilateral trading system nicknick_ko - stock.adobe.com

What Needs to Change at The WTO?
Our Panel of Experts presents our Recommendations at Public Forum 2018


The World Trade Organization (WTO) serves as a place where trade policy issues are addressed, disputes arbitrated, legal frameworks derived and enforced. The Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Expert Board on the Future of Trade Governance has released a report that elaborates a series of feasible policy recommendations that will increase the effectiveness and salience of the WTO. More ...

Car bodies on the production line inside automobile factory. Autokarossen in einer Autostraße einer Fabrik.
Bestellt am 18.01.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz für ST-MT ID-457 | GED Automobilindustrie" Prognos-Studie 103-64119-104 Car bodies on the production line inside automobile factory. Autokarossen in einer Autostraße einer Fabrik. Bestellt am 18.01.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz für ST-MT ID-457 | GED Automobilindustrie" Prognos-Studie 103-64119-104

$ 21.9 Billion - That's How Much US Tariffs on German Cars Could Cost the German Car Industry
Auto Executives around the world wait to see if imported car parts harm U.S. national security


With the United States on the verge of imposing US tariffs on German cars, we take a closer look at the German car industry’s exposure to the US market. To paint a more nuanced picture of the economic relationship, we apply a supply chain or added value approach. Our analysis shows that the German car industry could lose up to $ 21.9 billion in added value. More ...

multilateral trading system nicknick_ko - stock.adobe.com

Revitalizing Multilateral Governance at the World Trade Organization
Report of the High-Level Board of Experts on the Future of Global Trade Governance


The World Trade Organization (WTO) serves as a place where trade policy issues are addressed, disputes arbitrated, legal frameworks derived and enforced. The Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Expert Board on the Future of Trade Governance has released a report that elaborates a series of feasible policy recommendations that will increase the effectiveness and salience of the WTO. More ...

Photo by Ant Rozetsky on Unsplash Photo by Ant Rozetsky on Unsplash

Can We Have a Rational Discussion on Industrial Policy?
China’s state capitalism puts long maligned industrial policy back on the table


“Industrial policy” is back in the headlines. Whether in the European Union, Germany, or the United States, there is an ongoing debate in the media, among politicians and economists about the future of the industrial sector. While some observers fear that governments implementing industrial policy (or interfering in the markets, as detractors might say) will cause a roll-back right into a GDR- or Soviet-style planned economy, others regard it as a panacea to counteract China’s state capitalism. Yet, why do industrial policy discussions cause such a stir? More ...