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Yes. There Can Be Demographic Dividends with an Aging Population
Can Foreign Direct Investments (FDI’s) help increase prosperity and foster global sustainable development?


Could these different demographic and economic development stages be mutually beneficial? In this blog post we discuss whether foreign direct investments (FDIs) could help generate long-term economic growth and material prosperity producing demographic dividends for both sides. More ...

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The Future of Capitalism: Social Democracy in Crisis?
A book abstract of “The Future of Capitalism” by Paul Collier


With his latest book, the British economist Paul Collier attempts to unmask the existential crisis of modern capitalism. According to the author, social democracy has failed to deliver on its promise to create a cooperative and morally reciprocal society. “The Future of Capitalism” is Collier’s appeal to reset the mindset of modern social democracy, to […] More ...

Photo by Ant Rozetsky on Unsplash Photo by Ant Rozetsky on Unsplash

Can We Have a Rational Discussion on Industrial Policy?
China’s state capitalism puts long maligned industrial policy back on the table


“Industrial policy” is back in the headlines. Whether in the European Union, Germany, or the United States, there is an ongoing debate in the media, among politicians and economists about the future of the industrial sector. While some observers fear that governments implementing industrial policy (or interfering in the markets, as detractors might say) will cause a roll-back right into a GDR- or Soviet-style planned economy, others regard it as a panacea to counteract China’s state capitalism. Yet, why do industrial policy discussions cause such a stir? More ...

Photo by Charles 🇵🇭 on Unsplash Photo by Charles 🇵🇭 on Unsplash

Who Really Wins from the Digital Economy?
New video shows how digital disruption reshapes economic opportunities around the globe


Digitization is rapidly re-assembling the nuts and bolts of the global economy. Its disruptions are profound but uneven. From Cuba to Mozambique, from Argentina to India people, companies and governments have found different strategies to cope with the new digital world and a digital economy. In the latest entry to our Crossroads series Samuel George traces down how. Join him on his journey around the globe! More ...

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

Will the Digital Economy Change the Rules of the Game in the World Economy?
Monopolies and Superstar Firms


A central prerequisite for a functioning market economy is that there are many companies and many consumers. In this case, nobody has market power, which can be used to the detriment of others. The digital economy could change the situation. Special features in the cost structure and characteristics of digital goods can cause monopolies. The resulting superstar firms are able to increase their profits at the expense of consumers and employees. More ...

Photo by Naveed Ahmed on Unsplash Photo by Naveed Ahmed on Unsplash

India Can Lead the Way on Global Trade
India’s Trade Policies and finding a way toward global prosperity


At this point, India may be one of the few large economies able to provide leadership in international trade. The US under President Trump seems to have all but kissed goodbye to multilateralism. The EU at the moment seems too pre-occupied with issues like BREXIT etc. China while waxing eloquent about multilateralism, questions have arisen about its sincerity and earnestness. Besides, it is presently caught up in a trade war-like situation with the US. More ...

Car bodies on the production line inside automobile factory. Autokarossen in einer Autostraße einer Fabrik.
Bestellt am 18.01.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz für ST-MT ID-457 | GED Automobilindustrie" Prognos-Studie 103-64119-104 Car bodies on the production line inside automobile factory. Autokarossen in einer Autostraße einer Fabrik. Bestellt am 18.01.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz für ST-MT ID-457 | GED Automobilindustrie" Prognos-Studie 103-64119-104

$ 21.9 Billion - That's How Much US Tariffs on German Cars Could Cost the German Car Industry
Auto Executives around the world wait to see if imported car parts harm U.S. national security


With the United States on the verge of imposing US tariffs on German cars, we take a closer look at the German car industry’s exposure to the US market. To paint a more nuanced picture of the economic relationship, we apply a supply chain or added value approach. Our analysis shows that the German car industry could lose up to $ 21.9 billion in added value. More ...

Sean Pavone @ shutterstock.com Sean Pavone @ shutterstock.com

EU Japan Trade Deal: Free Trade Is Not Doomed!
EU and Japan: Today one of the world’s biggest trade deals comes into force


From February 1st, 2019, the EU and Japan will start to build a large free trade area with about 640 million customers. Calculations by the ifo Institute on behalf of Bertelsmann Stiftung show that both sides will benefit from the EU Japan trade deal. Moreover, it is a strong signal that economic cooperation and integration are still possible in times of Trump and Brexit. More ...

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Davos Discussion - The Paradox of Protectionist Policies
Pay, Power and Prestige


In recent years, many countries (not only in the U.S. under Donald Trump) have been imposing punitive tariffs and other trade barriers to protect their domestic economies. In fact, however, protectionist measures damage the national economy. Nevertheless, these decisions are often supported by a majority. This paradoxical phenomenon can be explained by Anthony Downs' political-economic considerations. More ...

GovernmentZA @ Flickr.com GovernmentZA @ Flickr.com

World Economic Forum 2019
Will it make a difference?


Every year, the high and mighty meet in the Swiss ski resort by invitation of the World Economic Forum for its Annual Meeting. This year, they discuss “Globalisation 4.0: Shaping a Global Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution”. A worthy topic, but will Davos give global governance more momentum? More ...

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

World Economic Outlook 2019
Growth in Times of Political Uncertainty


World economic outlook 2019: The global economy in 2018 was characterized by numerous political uncertainties: the future development of the trade disputes between the USA and China, the negotiations on the forthcoming Brexit, the Italian budgetary policy, the economic and political development in Turkey and much more. Unfortunately, these insecurities will not diminish in 2019. Global economic growth could therefore be weaker in 2019 than in 2018. More ...

multilateral trading system nicknick_ko - stock.adobe.com

World Trade Organization: What Way Forward for Trade Dispute Settlement?
New ideas on how to treat the current crisis of the World trade organizations Appellate Body


The dispute settlement body of the WTO performs an important role in adjudicating trade disputes. In this new GED Focus Paper, international trade law expert Robert McDougall proposes some fresh ideas on how to treat the current crisis of the WTO Appellate Body as a chance to improve and update trade dispute resolution at the WTO. More ...

© Waqas - stock.adobe.com © Waqas - stock.adobe.com

The Best of GED - 2018
Catch up on the GED team's favourite blogposts from 2018


2018 has been another exiting year for the Global Economic Dynamics Project. With populism on the rise and growing protectionist tendencies being felt in many western nations, the GED team aimed to deliver to you the necessary facts and insights concerning all things trade and economics this year. Our studies, focus papers, blogposts and videos covered everything from large geopolitical events such as the election of Donald Trump - to less mainstream stories such as boosting intra-African trade. More ...

multilateral trading system nicknick_ko - stock.adobe.com

Lip-service Commitments Won't Halt Protectionism
The G20's role in reforming the WTO


The Group of Twenty (G20) made no promises to put down their trade weapons in their communiqué signed in Buenos Aires. They only took note of “current trade issues.” Leaders also acknowledged the obvious — that the multilateral trading system is not working well — but they quietly dropped their traditional (and largely unfulfilled) commitment […] More ...

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multilateral trading system nicknick_ko - stock.adobe.com

What Needs to Change at The WTO?
Our Panel of Experts presents our Recommendations at Public Forum 2018


The World Trade Organization (WTO) serves as a place where trade policy issues are addressed, disputes arbitrated, legal frameworks derived and enforced. The Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Expert Board on the Future of Trade Governance has released a report that elaborates a series of feasible policy recommendations that will increase the effectiveness and salience of the WTO. More ...

Car bodies on the production line inside automobile factory. Autokarossen in einer Autostraße einer Fabrik.
Bestellt am 18.01.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz für ST-MT ID-457 | GED Automobilindustrie" Prognos-Studie 103-64119-104 Car bodies on the production line inside automobile factory. Autokarossen in einer Autostraße einer Fabrik. Bestellt am 18.01.2019 in einer KONZERN-Lizenz für ST-MT ID-457 | GED Automobilindustrie" Prognos-Studie 103-64119-104

$ 21.9 Billion - That's How Much US Tariffs on German Cars Could Cost the German Car Industry
Auto Executives around the world wait to see if imported car parts harm U.S. national security


With the United States on the verge of imposing US tariffs on German cars, we take a closer look at the German car industry’s exposure to the US market. To paint a more nuanced picture of the economic relationship, we apply a supply chain or added value approach. Our analysis shows that the German car industry could lose up to $ 21.9 billion in added value. More ...

multilateral trading system nicknick_ko - stock.adobe.com

World Trade Organization: What Way Forward for Trade Dispute Settlement?
New ideas on how to treat the current crisis of the World trade organizations Appellate Body


The dispute settlement body of the WTO performs an important role in adjudicating trade disputes. In this new GED Focus Paper, international trade law expert Robert McDougall proposes some fresh ideas on how to treat the current crisis of the WTO Appellate Body as a chance to improve and update trade dispute resolution at the WTO. More ...

Photo by Naveed Ahmed on Unsplash Photo by Naveed Ahmed on Unsplash

India Can Lead the Way on Global Trade
India’s Trade Policies and finding a way toward global prosperity


At this point, India may be one of the few large economies able to provide leadership in international trade. The US under President Trump seems to have all but kissed goodbye to multilateralism. The EU at the moment seems too pre-occupied with issues like BREXIT etc. China while waxing eloquent about multilateralism, questions have arisen about its sincerity and earnestness. Besides, it is presently caught up in a trade war-like situation with the US. More ...

Photo by Ant Rozetsky on Unsplash Photo by Ant Rozetsky on Unsplash

Can We Have a Rational Discussion on Industrial Policy?
China’s state capitalism puts long maligned industrial policy back on the table


“Industrial policy” is back in the headlines. Whether in the European Union, Germany, or the United States, there is an ongoing debate in the media, among politicians and economists about the future of the industrial sector. While some observers fear that governments implementing industrial policy (or interfering in the markets, as detractors might say) will cause a roll-back right into a GDR- or Soviet-style planned economy, others regard it as a panacea to counteract China’s state capitalism. Yet, why do industrial policy discussions cause such a stir? More ...

Copyright: © Eisenhans - stock.adobe.com Copyright: © Eisenhans - stock.adobe.com

Shades of 2008 - Unprecedented Levels of China's Debt Threaten the Entire Global Economy
Scaling China's Great Wall of Debt Will Require More than Smoke and Mirrors


The figures of the Chinese debts are subject to ongoing discussion among economists. Will the enormous rise in Chinese corporate and private debt lead to another global financial crisis or will it be managed by the Chinese government? If China’s debt management fails, the macroeconomic effects are expected to overshadow the catastrophic effects of the 2008 financial and economic crises by large. More ...

Photo by Wellington Rodrigues on Unsplash Photo by Wellington Rodrigues on Unsplash

Economic Development in Africa
Is demographic change an opportunity for Africa's economies?


  Africa is one of the poorest regions in the world. But with the fastest growing population in the world, and the availability of natural resources African nations can capitalize on this opportunity for growth. Learn in this post how Africa’s economies can profit from demographic change. According to United Nations projections, Africa’s population will […] More ...